This is what's keeping me up at night these days...

This is what's keeping me up at night these days...

1. chatgpt 4o image gen is as big as the chatgpt launch. probably will birth 1000+ $1-$100m/year vertical software businesses.

ChatGPT 4o 的图像生成功能，其影响力堪比当年 ChatGPT 本身的首次发布。 这可能会催生1000+个年营收从100万到1亿美元不等的垂直软件公司。

2. we’re in the “mp3 napster era” of content. millions of creators don’t realize their entire back catalog is being weaponized into their competition because of AI.

我们正处在“内容的 Napster 时代”，就像当年的MP3革命。 数百万内容创作者还没意识到，他们的旧作品正在被AI武器化，用于“复制+对抗”自己。

3. every calendar, inbox, and CRM will be rebuilt from scratch in the next 3 years. not “AI-enhanced,” fully rethought.

所有的日历、邮箱和CRM系统都会在未来3年被重构。 不是“加点AI”，是从底层重新设计。

4. i thought ai was creating digital employees. but it's more like digital employers. the first ai systems that can manage human workers will cause a restructuring of labor markets more significant than the industrial revolution.

我曾以为AI是在创造数字员工，其实它更像是在创造数字雇主。 首批能管理人类的AI系统将彻底重构就业市场，比工业革命还剧烈。

5. if your job is interviewing people who will train ai systems that will replace people who do interviews, you're just a step in a weird recursive extinction.

如果你的工作是面试那些将训练AI来取代面试官的人，那么你只是灭绝链中的一环。

6. ai is turning "service businesses that don't scale" into "product businesses with service margins." the new unicorns will be productized services with ai doing 80% of the work.

AI正在把“无法规模化的服务型业务”，转化为“有产品利润率的规模化产品型业务”。 下一波独角兽将是由AI驱动、服务产品化的公司。

7. building communities is harder than building products but everyone pretends it's the reverse. the reality is most startups fail because nobody cares.

打造一个有活力的社区比开发产品难多了，但大家都假装相反。 现实是：大多数创业失败，不是因为产品烂，而是没人关心。

8. it's been 739 days since the will smith spaghetti video. imagine what could happen to gen ai in 739 more days?

距离“威尔·史密斯吃意大利面”的AI视频发布，已经739天了。 想象一下接下来739天AI还能干什么？

9. people building "ai assistants" have never actually had assistants. real assistants need context, history, and relationship. 95% of chatbots have none of those.

那些开发“AI助手”的人，往往自己从没雇佣过真正的助理。 真正的助理需要上下文、历史、关系，95%的Chatbot完全不具备。

10. most customer support will be automated within 36 months. not just tier 1 tickets, complex, multi-step resolution that previously required senior support staff.

大部分客服将在36个月内被自动化取代。 不只是一级客服票据，连多步骤复杂问题也将被AI解决。

11. the worst thing that can happen to your startup is mediocre success. enough to keep you going but not enough to change your life. most founders are trapped there. thinking about this a lot with respect to shutting down or doubling down on projects.

创业最可怕的不是失败，而是“平庸的成功”。 能勉强维持但改变不了人生，这样的状态困住了无数创始人。关停还是加注？最近频繁思考这个问题。

12. the ai backlash won't just come from replaced workers, it'll be from everyone who realizes their entire digital identity is being converted into training data without consent.

AI引发的反弹，不仅来自被取代的员工，更多来自那些发现自己“整个人生数据”在未经同意下被用于训练模型的人。

13. no one has ever read a terms of service ever

从没人真正看过服务条款。

14. the "sketching economy" is the real ai revolution. when anyone can turn rough sketches into production-ready designs, taste and ideation become the only scarce resources.

“速写经济”才是真正的AI革命。 当每个人都能把草图变成量产设计，品味与创意就成了唯一稀缺的资源。

15. i dont know how else to say it, the money (and opportunity for the avg joe) is in ai startups is in vertical-specific applications that actually understand industry context. no, adding industry terms to your prompts isn't the same thing.

我实在不知怎么强调这点：普通人赚钱的AI机会在于“垂直场景下真正懂行”的产品。 不是往提示词里塞几个术语能搞定的。

16. consumer mobile is back in full swing. we went from desktop-first apps to mobile-first apps to now ai-first mobile apps. the next wave of $100m/year apps will start mobile-first with ai baked in from day one.

移动应用市场强势回归。 从桌面优先→移动优先→AI优先移动App，下一波年入亿级产品将从“AI内嵌的移动端”开始。

17. the ai middleman boom is just starting. companies that sit between foundation models and specific industries will capture most of the value while both ends get commoditized.

AI中间层公司的黄金时代刚开始。 真正赚大钱的是那些连接底层大模型和特定行业的公司，两端会被商品化。

18. we're witnessing the birth of a whole new job category: ai workflow designers. people who can map human processes into ai-augmented workflows will be the highest-paid consultants of the next decade.

我们正见证一个新职业的诞生：AI工作流设计师。 能把人类流程转化为AI增强流程的人，将是未来十年最值钱的顾问。

19. ai is creating winner-take-most markets overnight. the window to establish yourself as the go-to solution in a specific vertical is maybe 6-12 months before it closes for a decade. this isn't helping my sleep lollll.

AI正制造“赢家通吃”的市场。 在某个垂直领域成为头部解决方案的窗口期，也许就6-12个月，错过就得等10年。

20. really smart strategy to rebuild traditional products with ai as your unfair advantage, hiding the complexity behind familiar interfaces. basically, just look at proven apps that have no ai, make them ai-first (if it adds a ton of value to end customer). use ai features (don’t sell ai) in creator-led marketing. this is the playbook.

用AI重构传统产品的策略极其聪明。 不要卖AI，卖熟悉的界面+更高价值。让AI藏在背后，通过创作者带货，而不是强调AI本身。

21. distribution is the only moat left. your product, tech, and team can all be replicated. your direct connection to customers cannot.

唯一的护城河只剩下“分发”。 产品、技术、团队都能抄，但你和用户的连接是独一无二的。

22. we'll soon hit the tipping point where custom ai tools are cheaper than hiring humans, even for small businesses.

我们很快会迎来一个节点：自定义AI工具比雇人还便宜，连小公司都能用得起。

23. nobody's talking about how ai is making previously "un-acquirable" businesses suddenly attractive targets. when you can automate operations, the owner-dependent business problem disappears.

以前无法被收购的“小老板业务”，AI时代突然变得极具吸引力。 因为AI自动化让“老板亲力亲为”不再是问题。

24. the coming smb acquisition frenzy will make the 2021 tech bubble look tame. when ai drops operating costs by 60%, every small business becomes a cash flow engine.

即将到来的中小企业收购潮，会让2021年的科技泡沫都显得温和。 AI把运营成本砍掉60%，每家小公司都成了现金奶牛。

25. if vibe coding will be a $100B opportunity, how big of an opportunity is vibe marketing?

如果“氛围编码”能是千亿级市场，那“氛围营销”得有多大？

26. Video game studios will separate into two distinct types: agent-driven content farms that generate infinite assets, and boutique studios focused on core mechanics. The middle will disappear entirely.

游戏公司将分化成两类：无限生成内容的AI代理工厂 vs 核心机制驱动的精品工作室。 中间层将彻底消失。

27. Corporate photography is effectively dead. No company will pay $2K for a stock-style photoshoot when they can generate unlimited perfectly on-brand imagery for the cost of a subscription.

商业摄影基本宣告死亡。 没公司愿意再花$2,000拍风格平庸的照片了，AI订阅就能生成品牌一致性极高的无限图片。

28. enterprise sales is being completely inverted by ai. using ai to identify exactly when and how to talk to the right buyer, and set off automations. ill probably talk about this more on a pod soon.

企业销售流程正被AI彻底颠覆。 用AI精准判断何时、如何接触目标客户并自动跟进。

29. i wonder if AGI will emerge from interconnected agent networks that develop emergent properties nobody designed? we're building the neural connections without realizing it.

我怀疑 AGI 会从互联的AI代理网络中涌现出“我们没设计过的智能”。 我们正在无意中搭建神经网络。

30. while genai looks to be the $1T category, many quiet fortunes will be built in predictive ai. knowing what will happen is more valuable than generating new content.

虽然生成式AI是1万亿赛道，但“预测式AI”也会默默造就大量财富。 能预知未来比生成内容更有价值。

31. the "ai bubble" is actually an excise tax on vcs who can't tell the difference between genuine innovation and repackaged openai apis.

所谓“AI泡沫”，其实是对分不清创新和换皮API的VC们收的智商税。

32. interfaces will become personalities. when every tool can talk back, vibe and tone will drive trust, loyalty, and retention.

界面将变成“人格”。 每个工具都能说话时，语气与风格将决定信任度与留存率。

33. ai will kill the homepage. interfaces will get replaced by entry points that change based on who you are, what you need, and when you show up.

AI将“杀死”传统首页。 未来的入口会根据你的身份、需求、时间动态变化。

34. no one will pay for "ai", they’ll pay to solve a $10,000/hour problem in 3 clicks. sell outcomes, hide the ai.

没人会为“AI”买单，他们只愿意为3次点击解决1万美元的问题买单。 卖结果，隐藏AI。

35. ai is unbundling google. every vertical search engine, directory, and comparison tool is a billion-dollar opportunity in disguise.

AI正在拆解Google。 每个垂直搜索、比价工具、目录网站，背后都是隐藏的十亿美元机会。

36. every small business will get a “ghost team.” automated bookkeepers, sales agents, marketers—run by one founder and 5 bots.

每个小公司都将拥有“幽灵团队”。 自动化的会计、销售、市场，全靠创始人+5个AI跑起来。

37. ai-generated content is creating a monoculture of ideas. when everyone uses the same models, we get the same outputs. original human thinking is becoming the ultimate premium. be weird. weird will sell.

AI生成内容正在制造“文化同质化”。 用同样模型，就产出同样的东西。人类原创思想成为新奢侈品。要怪异，怪异会卖。

38. schools won’t be disrupted by ai. they’ll be disintermediated. smart teens will skip formal education, build audiences, run experiments, and learn faster. kids say they want to become creators but creators are becoming entrepreneurs. entrepreneurship becomes the most popular profession.

学校不会被AI颠覆，而是被绕开。 聪明的年轻人将跳过正规教育，先建立观众群、自学、实战、快速成长。创业将成为最热门职业。

39. in 18 months, 80% of the “ai startup” category will look like spam. the rest will become infrastructure.

18个月后，80%的“AI初创”会沦为垃圾，剩下的会成为新基础设施。

40. conversion rate product debates are obsolete. Why argue over 2 button colors when AI focus groups can test 200 variations overnight?

关于“哪个按钮颜色转化率高”的争论过时了。 AI可以一晚测试200种变体。

41. most of what we call “marketing” is about to be done by ai. humans will move upstream into storytelling, vibes, and brand energy.

大多数“营销”工作即将被AI接手。 人类会转向更上游的叙事、调性与品牌气场。

42. the best hiring decision you can make this year? a head of ai ops. someone who can build workflows, glue tools, and ship outcomes.

你今年能做的最明智招聘？雇一个AI运营负责人。 能建流程、串工具、交付结果的那种人。

43. the first $1b AGI startup will look like a toy at first. all world-changing interfaces do.

第一家千亿级AGI创业公司，起初看起来像个玩具。 所有改变世界的界面刚开始都是这样。

44. ai-powered distribution > ai-powered product. a mid product with elite reach will beat a great product with no attention every time.

AI驱动的分发 > AI驱动的产品。 中等产品+顶级触达，完爆无人知晓的好产品。

45. people still hate monthly subscriptions. outcome-based pricing is still in early days. implementing this will be a competitive advantage for lots of companies. large saas wont be able to compete with you.

人们仍然讨厌订阅制。 基于结果的计费还在早期，谁先做谁有优势，大型SaaS拼不过。

46. i don't know how long this window stays open, but we're in a moment where all the rules of building businesses are being rewritten. for the people playing with these new tools, creating audiences and communities, you've got an unfair advantage.

我不知道这窗口还能开多久，但我们正在经历一场商业规则的全面重写。 对那些善于玩转新工具、懂得建立用户社群的人而言，这是不公平的优势。

i hope you get some sleep.

希望大家睡个好觉

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来自X的GREG ISENBERG，详情请参考https://x.com/gregisenberg/status/1906697683089101113?t=RRzELZk9Fai7h8WOeKMtKw&s=19